Hoping the Hiring of Jim Mora Turns Out Right, Even if the Reasons Were Wrong

 by Achilles on Dec 16, 2011 2:07 PM PST in Football

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Stephen Dunn - Getty ImagesMore photos »

PASADENA, CA - Because of, or despite the play of Datone Jones, Jim Mora has retained the services of defensive line coach Inoke Brecterfield. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

There is a person in my life who makes predictions for a living. I prefer not to be too specific, but I can tell you that their work requires extensive analysis of the economy and financial sectors -- with an eye on commodities -- and then make predictions on where prices are going in the future. There are people who rely on this person and a lot of money is risked and invested based on these predictions.

There are real stakes involved.

But my friend/colleague is not always right. No one is always right. Trying to guess the future price of gold or silver six months, a year, two or three years from now is an inexact science to say the least.

But my colleague, she has an interesting way of looking at her work. She feels that those who follow her rely a little too much on the end results, the final numbers or predictions. They don't pay enough attention to the underlying story that accompanies the tables and the charts. That's the important stuff, she says, that people often overlook. She puts it this way:

"Achilles, I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons," she says, "then right for the wrong reasons."

The reasoning is this: Sound methodology is more important than predictions. No one can account for every possible factor that impacts the outcome. But if your arguments are sound, not only will you do a good job of making predictions but you'll be able to justify your mistakes and retain your credibility. Anyone can guess right once in a while, even the the broken clock is right twice a day.

http://www.bruinsnation.com/2011/12/16/2641068/Jim-Mora-UCLA-Bruins-Hope-Chris-Petersen-Dan-Guerrero#storyjump