Oppenheimer & Co.
"Six months into the year it’s become clear to us that 2014 is likely to be remembered in market history books as a year of big surprises," writes Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus.
"From our vantage point on the market radar screen it confirms that indeed the economy is getting better, that stocks continue to gather a following among investors after many years of being ignored, untrusted and unloved by more than a few."
Stoltzfus believes that investors and traders will be watching the upcoming earnings season closely.
"Market participants will be looking for further improvements in revenues and earnings growth that along with financial engineering in the form of share buybacks have helped move the market higher through the recovery since 2009," he said. "Guidance as to what corporate leadership sees ahead will likely carry increasing weight."
As the Federal Reserve continues to let up on its easy monetary policy, Stoltzfus warns that the market could experience a ramp up in volatility.
Stoltzfus just published a brief 35-page presentation putting every corner of the financial markets into perspective.
Thanks to Oppenheimer & Co. for giving us permission to feature this presentation.
Interest rates are slowly climbing to more normal levels.
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Utilities have been beating consumer discretionary stocks.
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Everything's up a healthy amount from their lows of the year.
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Valuations for cyclicals are rich, but earnings expectations could be too conservative.
Oppenheimer & Co.
Valuations for defensive stocks are also rich, but earnings expectations for these could also be too conservative.
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Here's a look at the biggest winners and losers of the S&P 500 since the beginning of the year.
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Investors are bullish, but not extremely bullish.
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The expected return of stocks relative to bonds is shrinking.
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European stocks have been doing great.
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Only the frontier markets saw red in June.
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But the frontier markets are still having a huge year.
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Job growth should boost corporate earnings and revenue.
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Consumer confidence is moving higher.
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Manufacturing and services industry survey indices are well above crisis levels.
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Auto sales should keep moving higher.
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Tight inventory has held back the housing market.
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Stock market volatility is at historic lows.
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Commodity prices are moving up due to supply issues.
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Geopolitics appear to be driving gold and silver prices.
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High gas prices are bad news. But consumers aren't nearly as vulnerable as they used to be.
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The shale boom has insulated the U.S. from overseas oil shocks.
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U.S. energy exports have been booming.
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A lot of things are weighing on the U.S. dollar.
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Mid-cap stocks are making a notable rally.
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Individual sectors will do different things in any given year.
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Bonds and gold usually move in the opposite direction of stocks.
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Investors' reach for yield has fueled rallies in junk bonds and munis.
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By far, the U.S. remains the biggest economy in the world.
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Here's a summary of Oppenheimer's outlook.
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For some perspective from another firm...
REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Traders work in the JP Morgan company stall on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York July 15, 2010.
Here's JPMorgan's Ultimate Guide To Everything Happening In The Markets »
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Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/oppenheimer-investment-strategy-july-2014-2014-7?op=1#ixzz36nBjo4QU
